All around me are familiar faces
Worn out places, worn out faces
Bright and early for their daily races
Going nowhere, going nowhere
Their tears are filling up their glasses
No expression, no expression
Hide my head I want to drown my sorrow
No tomorrow, no tomorrow
And I find it kinda funny
I find it kinda sad
The dreams in which I'm dying
Are the best I've ever had
I find it hard to tell you
I find it hard to take
When people run in circles
It's a very, very mad world mad world
Worn out places, worn out faces
Bright and early for their daily races
Going nowhere, going nowhere
Their tears are filling up their glasses
No expression, no expression
Hide my head I want to drown my sorrow
No tomorrow, no tomorrow
And I find it kinda funny
I find it kinda sad
The dreams in which I'm dying
Are the best I've ever had
I find it hard to tell you
I find it hard to take
When people run in circles
It's a very, very mad world mad world
Children waiting for the day they feel good
Happy Birthday, Happy Birthday
And I feel the way that every child should
Sit and listen, sit and listen
Went to school and I was very nervous
No one knew me, no one knew me
Hello teacher tell me what's my lesson
Look right through me, look right through me
- Gary Jules (Mad World)
Black on flat water past the jonquil lawns
Riding, the black swan draws
A private chaos warbling in its wake,
Assuming, like a fourth dimension, splendor
That calls the child with white ideas of swans
Nearer to that green lake
Where every paradox means wonder.
Though the black swan’s arched neck is like
A question-mark on the lake,
The swan outlaws all possible questioning:
A thing in itself, like love, like submarine
Disaster, or the first sound when we wake;
And the swan-song it sings
Is the huge silence of the swan.
…. The Black Swan by James Merrill
… undirected and unpredicted...
The 16 Hundreds...
Juvenal: "Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno" - "a rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan.”
Willem de Vlamingh: “ Oh look! A Black Swan!” (Dutch explorer, (Vlamink?) who discovered Black Swans on the Swan River in Australia.)
The 18 Hundreds...
Hans Christian Anderson: “Being born in a duck yard does not matter, if only you are hatched from a swan's egg”.
The 19 Hundreds...
Albert Einstein: " You cannot simultaneously prepare for and prevent war."
Tom 'Tommy' Blue: “If you kick her in the heart, she'll break your leg.” (From the Movie Black Swan, 1942)
Jamie: Church bells.
Tom 'Tommy' Blue: Aye. Some people like to hear them. I like trumpets better ( From The Black Swan, Movie, 1942)
Microsoft: "Ah, the first personal computer!" (1980"s)Tom 'Tommy' Blue: Aye. Some people like to hear them. I like trumpets better ( From The Black Swan, Movie, 1942)
The 21st Century...
9/11: "Today is truly a day that will never be forgotten. It was on this day, September 11, 2001, that ..... Events took place that changed the lives of ...."
Nelson Mandela: “ A rare Black Swan event!”
Desmond Tutu: “ It is beyond everything we could have ever expected.”
Barack Obama: “ I could have never predicted this...
Zuckerberg: “ Scientific methods was used in the non-computability of the probability of this consequential event.”
The Pope: “ My bias made all of us blind to uncertainty and the massive role of this event in the future of the World”
A few examples of Black Swan Events through the ages...Yes, it is sometimes interesting to imagine Black Swan events in our future... it may also be good to observe the lessons of Nassim Taleb...
Nassim Taleb: “Our fixed model considered the "known unknowns", but ignored the "unknown unknowns":
- No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains
- Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and riskbearing.
- People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.
- Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks.
- Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.
- Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning .
- Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”.
- Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains
- Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).
- Make an omelette with the broken eggs.
It is all fine to observe the above principles, but...can a small change at one place in a complex system have large effects elsewhere? Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in South Africa set off a tornado in the rest of the world?
The truth is...?
Thomas Leroy: The truth is when I look at you all I see is the white swan. Yes you're beautiful, fearful, and fragile. Ideal casting. But the black swan? It's a hard fucking job to dance both.
Nina: I can dance the black swan, too.
Thomas Leroy: Really? In 4 years every time you dance I see you obsessed getting each and every move perfectly right but I never see you lose yourself. Ever! All that discipline for what?
Nina: [whispers] I just want to be perfect.
Thomas Leroy: What?
Nina: I want to be perfect.
Thomas Leroy: [scoffs] Perfection is not just about control. It's also about letting go. Surprise yourself so you can surprise the audience. Transcendence! Very few have it in them.
Nina: I can dance the black swan, too.
Thomas Leroy: Really? In 4 years every time you dance I see you obsessed getting each and every move perfectly right but I never see you lose yourself. Ever! All that discipline for what?
Nina: [whispers] I just want to be perfect.
Thomas Leroy: What?
Nina: I want to be perfect.
Thomas Leroy: [scoffs] Perfection is not just about control. It's also about letting go. Surprise yourself so you can surprise the audience. Transcendence! Very few have it in them.
(From the movie The Black Swan, 2011)
... imagine a Black Swan ...
I see trees of green, red roses too
I see them bloom for me and you
And I think to myself what a wonderful world.
I see skies of blue and clouds of white
The bright blessed day, the dark sacred night
And I think to myself what a wonderful world.
The colors of the rainbow so pretty in the sky
Are also on the faces of people going by
I see friends shaking hands saying how do you do
They're really saying I love you.
I see them bloom for me and you
And I think to myself what a wonderful world.
I see skies of blue and clouds of white
The bright blessed day, the dark sacred night
And I think to myself what a wonderful world.
The colors of the rainbow so pretty in the sky
Are also on the faces of people going by
I see friends shaking hands saying how do you do
They're really saying I love you.
Riding, the black swan draws a private chaos warbling in its wake.... paradox means wonder...
'Mmmm…” ISTART2 Caregiver, 27 November 2011
No comments:
Post a Comment